The United States and China recently resumed semi-official talks on nuclear arms for the first time in five years. During these discussions held in March, Chinese representatives assured their American counterparts that they would not resort to nuclear threats in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. The talks, organized under Track Two diplomacy, involved scholars and former military officers from both sides, aiming to address concerns and clarify nuclear policies amidst escalating tensions.
Key points discussed included China's commitment to prevailing in a conventional conflict over Taiwan without nuclear escalation, reaffirming its longstanding no-first-use and minimal deterrence policies. These policies, dating back to China's first nuclear bomb development, aim to maintain a limited nuclear arsenal primarily for deterrence purposes.
Despite the resumption of these talks, formal negotiations between the US and China on nuclear arms have encountered challenges, with previous efforts stalling over issues of transparency and strategic intentions. The discussions reflect broader geopolitical tensions between the two nations, marked by mutual accusations and increasing military posturing.
The US, acknowledging China's nuclear arsenal expansion and modernization efforts, continues to seek clarity on risk reduction measures and nuclear policy transparency from Beijing. Meanwhile, China emphasizes the survivability of its nuclear capabilities and the necessity of its modernization program in response to perceived threats and advancements in US missile defense systems.
The outcome of these talks underscores the delicate balance of nuclear deterrence in East Asia and the ongoing efforts to mitigate the risk of nuclear conflict amid complex international dynamics.
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